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Dr inż. Marek Mróz

ORCID: 0000-0003-1826-0495

Dr inż. Marek Mróz

Assistant Professor at the War Studies University — academic teacher. Graduated from the Military University of Technology in Warsaw in 1983 and completed postgraduate studies (pedagogy in 1994) at the National Defence Academy in Warsaw. He also completed doctoral studies (in 1998) at the National Defence Academy in Warsaw. He has many years of experience and didactic achievements resulting from the teaching at the National Defence Academy, College of Computer Science, Management and Administration and War Studies University. He has taught logistics, national security, and production management and engineering at undergraduate and postgraduate levels. He has promoted dozens of bachelor's and master's degree students. His research interests include logistics issues related to the areas of IT support of logistics through the use of integrated ERP information systems and widely understood quantitative methods.

Article

Prediction of sales volume by the Brown model as an element of economic calculation on the example of Comarch, s. 46-59

DOI: 10.33226/1231-2037.2021.3.5

JEL: C00

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Prediction of sales volume by the Brown model as an element of economic calculation on the example of Comarch

The topic of the article is a prediction of sales volume in the IT company Comarch calculated with the method of exponential equalization using a one-parameter Brown model on the basis of conducted theoretical and empirical research. The main objective of the undertaken research was to calculate predictions for the next two quarters (third and fourth) of 2020, on the basis of obtained empirical data from 2016–2020.

On the other side, the research problem concerned the proper use of the Brown model for predicting sales volumes, in order to obtain a more precise prediction. The theoretical and practical approach to the problem of research made it possible to attempt to organize the area of knowledge related to Brown's model prediction, including mainly the smoothing of the time series using the exponential equalization method.

Keywords: prediction; Brown model; exponential alignment method; smoothing constant